These are fair questions and its good to think about them and have a public discussion about their merits. Iâm excited that we now have this forum to engage in these discussions. While this is our first kick-off analysis for the network, it is not purely an pilot, I believe the results generated from this analysis are addressing an important clinical question for which their isnât currently evidence available, so will be highly publishable and directly relevant for current clinical practice.
To your questions, I donât think weâre introducing bias in this descriptive summary analysis, the 3yr requirement is part of the definition of the problem weâre seeking to address, which is âin real world populations, what is the long-term treatment patterns among these chronic diseases?â. Our definition requires that a person has at least one exposure record every 4 months during the 3-yr period of interest. Changing the 3-yr period fundamentally changes the question : an equally reasonable, but different question, that could be asked is: âwhat are the short-term treatment patterns observed in the 1-yr period after treatment initiation for chronic diseasesâ. Given @rwpark 's insightful observation about the quick drop-off of eligible patients, perhaps an additional analysis with only a 1yr window would be a nice complement to the current study? If thereâs interest from someone, you could add this thought to the âprotocols in developmentâ for reaction. Modifying the code to run for only 1yr would be trivial to do.
I donât believe our requirement of â>=1 exposure every 4moâ makes the population âvery compliantâ, because this definition would allow a person with one 30d dispensing each 4 months (and therefore, 90d of non-adherence, or proportion of days covered [PDC]=25%) to be considered in the analysis. We chose 4 months because it could be that a person gets a 90d dispensing, and weâd be tolerating a 30d of non-adherence (so, PDC=75%). The reason we need to impose some requirement of regular exposure is because otherwise we would incorrectly classify a person as persisting on their last treatment, when in fact they have may stopped treatment prior to the end of observation. As an extreme thought experiment, if we had a person with only one 30-d exposure to metformin, and no subsequent treatment during their 3-yr observation after startâŚweâd classify that personâs sequence as âmetformin onlyâ, when in reality weâd say the person was either unexposed during the 35 months or weâd guess that we donât have confidence in the data during that period (or maybe even question the first exposure and whether the person really have T2DM!).
Re: sensitivity analysis, I hear thereâs a very good paper on this topic (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24969153) In this descriptive analysis, where we arenât estimating a causal effect and arenât estimating prevalence of disease or incidence of treatment, I think thereâs less opportunities for systematic error, but it still bears consideration. Our current planned sensitivity analysis involve our stratification by database (to see if populations, geographies, and/or data capture processes influence the observed patterns) and by year (to see if the patterns are influenced by any secular trends). I do not believe we can change the 3-yr window without changing the underlying research question. It may be interested to some in the community to explore whether modifying the 4-month window to be less or more materially impacts the results, though again I would caution that extreme changes in this âparameterâ would change the question. I suppose additional sensitivity analyses could be performed to explore the impact of different definitions of the indication disease (e.g. right now T2DM is defined by diagnosis code, as @rkboyce pointed out, it could also be defined by other elements), and if others in the community want to implement alternative approaches, I think thatâd be great and Iâd be happy to try to run them on my data. I donât think the drug list used for each disease is too controversial, but certainly a benefit of an open community is to get as many eyes on it as possible to improve the quality of our research.