Hi everyone! I'm following up to gauge the community's interest in turning that jaw-dropping/inspirational live demo of the Patient Level Prediction tool from this year's Symposium tutorial into an official study. I heard rumors that people are interested in continuing the momentum to further explore this work. So, since I initially tossed out that idea at the tutorial, I thought I'd try to get the conversation started here too!
For those who weren't at the tutorial or just as a reminder, we attempted to create a model to predict: among adult patients admitted with pneumonia, who will have an ICU stay during their hospitalization?
The on-the-fly model created in 30 min did remarkably well (AUC of 0.88 or so), but we later realized it included all covariates, not just the ones from before Day 0 of admission. But it showed the incredible power and potential of this tool
The larger, more general topic might be predicting pneumonia severity, and we could potentially discuss several outcomes of interest (readmission being another high-value/popular outcome). Some next steps might be a discussion around the clinical question(s) we want to answer and then more clearly defining our cohorts, outcomes, covariates, and the model(s) we want to use.
I'll start by saying that I was initially inspired by an ED physician who cited the PSI score for predicting severity/adverse outcomes as a reason a patient should be admitted to my team. Looking at the primary literature, I quickly realized the score is from 1997 (20 years ago!). This, along with the CURB-65 score (15 years ago), form the 2 main scores that doctors use to predict how sick someone with pneumonia might get.
I look forward to hearing all your thoughts and ideas! Or just let us know if you're interested in participating!